Escalating War of Words Involving Ethiopia and Eritrea Raises Anxieties of Military Confrontation

Growing concerns have emerged about the possibility of warfare among Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational language has intensified in the past few weeks.

Red Sea coastline
The Ethiopian government and Eritrea were allies in the armed struggle in Tigray but they have later become estranged.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has provoked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in last year that his country's sea access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Amid persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to brief comments on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for maritime entry labeling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of reclaiming previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on 16 September that attempts to justify "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Region

There have been no reports of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed completion events of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the military, the officer, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Past Background of the Dispute

For decades from the late 19th century, the territory was ruled by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the ruler cancelled this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, concluding with military reversal in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then approved by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their common border, causing war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a statement that the hostilities was finished – a action that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then allies in the country's recent armed struggle in Tigray.

However diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated once more.

Matthew Browning
Matthew Browning

Maya is a seasoned IT consultant with over 12 years of experience in cloud infrastructure and cybersecurity, passionate about helping businesses optimize their digital operations.