Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
