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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But the current race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers improving together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still